I recently saw a presentation of a study by three journalism scholars at Southern Illinois University in which one surprising result stood out that bodes well for Barack Obama's prospects in the November election.

The scholars, Dennis T. Lowry, Lei (Tommy) Xie and Oliver R. Witte, studied topic patterns and rhetorical styles in TV news coverage of the past four presidential elections. In the process, they measured optimism in sound bites for each of the major-party candidates. The results are in the chart below.

As you can see, the difference in the optimism score closely tracks the Electoral College totals for the two parties in each election year; in fact the authors found an unusually high correlation (Kendall's Tau-a, r = .98, p = 0.048, for the stats geeks) between the two. So if Obama is taking a more optimistic tone than McCain -- and my unscientific impression is that he is -- and this pattern holds true, then he should win handily in November.

A true boondoggle is a marvelous thing.  It's more than just a mistake or a normal swindle.  It is a burst of misguided energy and activity that completely fails to accomplish was it is supposed to -- but which serves the purposes of the boondoggler perfectly well.

After watching Gore's TED lecture (ted.com), a then global-warming-depressed student e-mailed me today to ask what I thought we could do to fight global warming. He's in Iceland right now and he said he could imagine the disappearance of the small islands surrounding the mainland. He said he's recycling, planting trees, and riding his bike, but it all seems so little compared to the magnitude of the problem. Johnnyrook's book review (Right and Wrong in a Warming World) reminded me of the moral dimensions of the issue, so it seemed worth repeating here what I wrote to him...

I read an article yesterday talking about how, for all the lip service this election from both campaign in favor of change and a radical shift from  polarizing policies and politics, this election has quickly become a grudge match along the same lines as the last several.  While the Democratic primary was a reasonably sedate affair, Obama v. McCain went nasty almost immediately after the Illinois senator secured the Democratic nomination and is likely to become notably even more mudslinging by the time it draws to an end in a little more than four months.    

For those of us who love a good political fight and are incapable of seeing politics in any other manifestation, this kind of back-and-forth bickering is much in line with our desires and expectations.  

Remember when things were this simple?

Row, row, row your boat,
Gently down the stream.
Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily,
Life is such a dream.

Then at some point, we all will face obstacles, overwhelming challenges and almost daily disappointments.
I'm from the government and I'm here to help.

Yeah, right. . . Please stop helping me.

The last seven years of Bush/Cheney have drained the country's reservoir leaving us broke, in a moral lowground, facing recession,

Your verse may have changed a little . . .

Row, row, row you boat
Gently down the stream
If you see a waterfall
Don't forget to scream

I have waited for this night for so long. Almost eight years ago, a man who purports to be from my state (Texas), stood only 5 miles away from my house where my boyfriend (now husband) and I were watching the craziness of the 2000 election. That man is now our president and thankfully is only months away from ending the worst presidential administration of all time. At that time, as Bush's supporters were so excited that Florida was called for Bush (and were jumping up and down with glee and screaming - minutes from where I was), my boyfriend and I were extremely depressed that Al Gore was probably going to lose to someone we considered ill-equipped for the presidency.

Little did we know that it was just the beginning of an eight-year depression that lasted as long as the worst presidency of all time.

Source: Digital Smack

America's power structure has shown throughout history that they will stoop to any level to eliminate what they consider a serious threat to the status quo.  We all knew that before Hillary casually raised the specter of Robert Kennedy in a last ditch effort to keep her candidacy alive. Our history books are littered with ugly episodes of political assassination, both figurative and literal.

That Obama can remain hopeful knowing what has happened to people who truly wanted to change things is amazing to me.  Maybe he really is the Chosen One ..

Like most of you, my reaction to the ending of the same sex marriage ban was mixed.  Most of me was excited than an obvious case of discrimination was struck down.  A small part of me was still worried about November.  We've already seen the God and guns; here comes the gay issue.

Of course, even if this meant President McCain, I couldn't say this ruling was wrong.  You can't keep oppressing a minority out of fear of the voters.  In that case you won't stand for anything other than winning.  Fortunately though, I think this time, it's not going to be that big of a deal.  Follow me below the fold for the reasoning.

Amory Lovins, author of Winning the Oil Endgame, which prophesies various ways we will escape dependence on Big Oil, is an optimist.

"Sometimes after I give a talk, some folks get irked that I talk only about solutions and not about problems," [Lovins told The New Yorker] "And typically someone will get up and give a long riff about all the bad things happening and all the suffering in the universe, which is basically true."

I started today reading about how the sky is falling.  Obama is going to lose, you wail!  The election will be stolen, we lament!  Hillary = evil!  Wright = damaging loudmouth!  DKos community in upheaval!  

Browsing DKos is my preferred means of procrastinating for at least a few minutes (i.e., hours) every morning, but I'll admit that the diaries this particular morning put me in a funk.

I was worried, gnashing my teeth, fidgeting and, yes, even a little scared.  My feeling of unease lasted pretty much the entire day.  Then I read this diary from LarsThorwald

And then what did I do?  Order pizza and watch a movie?  Fuck no! (but maybe for those who are really strung out this would work) Chill out?  Definitely not.  Cry and moan about Clinton/Wright/Fox/MSM/debates/polls?  No way, I'm done with that shit.  Nope, instead I had an adult beverage and then called college students in North Carolina from Obama's online phonebanking tool.

Read about it here or, better yet, make some calls now and read later so you can be honest when you reply to the poll.  

Andi Tobin wrote in to say "I just noticed The ArchiTECHS is on The History Channel at 5 a.m. on May 2."

This show portrays some of the can-do spirit we hope to bring back, after a decade of dour, dyspeptic neoconservative hatred of optimism.

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Americans have a right to be bitter about the War in Iraq and the loss of America's best young men and women and our national treasure, the crumbling U.S. economy, the loss of jobs because of NAFTA and outsourcing, corporate greed and the fact that our politicians don't take responsibility for what they have done.  

Americans just might be bitter because Hillary Clinton failed the American people in the single most important decision she has had in her entire political life.  On August 11, 2002 she voted in favor of the "Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002," the law which took effect in October 2002 and effectively authorized the Iraq War.   In so doing, Hillary Clinton, along with a minority of congressional Democrats and the Republican majority, gave President Bush the authority he sought to launch a war in Iraq.  

But how quickly peace becomes war when money changers are involved.  

How quickly peace becomes war when greased palms and tables are turned.

How quickly peace becomes mocking condension.  

For the past several years I have secretly, quietly, and sometimes obsessively come to the Daily Kos for updates on progressive thinking. As you know, recently there has been great debate over the Clinton-Obama divide, and while I've never written a diary, I'm here to finally tell you that I know you, I feel for you, and I look forward to transforming this party with you. This place isn't made for the status-quo; it's made for you. And there is a reason why much of this site is seemingly pro-Obama; it's because he represents the clear next step in the agenda-changing progressive shift we've been fighting for.

More below the fold...

There is a unifying theme in broad circulation among those invested up to their necks in the social, political and economic status quo in this country.

It is the fundamental belief, acted upon or, as is more often the case, simply spouted without true personal conviction, that America is above question, above doubt and above pessimism.

Optimism is the key driving force of conservative America, and in the face of impending disaster, it has become clear that America -- the one from the stories of your childhood and from your civics textbooks -- is a colossal lie.

Time speeds up as one gets older. When I was 10, the next passing year represented 1/10 of my life. Now each year is 1/50-plus... you see what I mean. I am closer than ever to an end-game that comes ever more swiftly. Has the shortening of years skewed my perspective about the seemingly exponential increase in intractable problems facing humanity? Or are things really going from bad to worse, and if so, can the downward spiral be stopped? Reversed?

Today, I have been noticing new promo spots on MSNBC featuring some of their notable anchors. Brian Williams, Tim Russert and Chris Matthews have all made short segments promoting their network's political coverage by invoking civics, democracy, and what makes this country great.

I glazed over them without paying much attention but something struck me about the last thing Matthews said in his segment:

"Optimism is America"

There. I said it.

And if I ever had any reason to doubt that simple truth, I was reminded of it while spending far more of my day than I should have commenting (and responding to comments) in the threads about the Don Siegelman piece that aired (or didn't, depending on where you were watching) last night on 60 Minutes.

Don't worry. I've got that out of my system now, having said pretty much everything I could possibly say about it in those comments sections. Go read those over there if you're still curious. I have something else to say after the jump.